Editor’s Note: With the recent conclusion of the GAFCON meeting in Jerusalem–with significant leadership led by African Anglican leaders–the following material might be of interest when it comes to the trajectory of the Christian Church when measured demographically through history.
Drawn from “Ockenga Connections” (A Ministry of the Ocknga Institute of Gordon-Conwell Theological Seminary
(volume 11, number 2 Summer 2006)
Which in turn is drawn with supporting methodology and documentation, appears in an expanded form in International Review of Mission, Vol. 93, No. 369, April 2004, pp. 166-81)
Authors: Todd M. Johnson, Director of the Center for the Study of Global Christianity, GCTS; and
Sun Young Chung, M.Div., GCTS
Introduction
Throughout the history of Christianity, the Christian message has often been embraced by whole villages, tribes, or peoples. Consequently, groups of followers, including their ethnicity and language, can be named, located, listed, counted, mapped, and tracked over time. As a result, Christians as a whole, at any given time in history, have a definable geographic boundary and demographic or statistical center. In practical terms, a single geographic point on Earth can be seen as the statistical “center of gravity” of all Christian followers at any given date–where the number of all Christians living to its north, its south, its easat, and its west is exactly the same.
The demographic history of Christianity is viewed precisely through this lens in Map 1: “Trajectory of the Statistical Center of Gravity of Global Christianity, AD 33-AD 2100.” A single geographic point has been identified as the statistical center of gravity of Christianity for each of 25 different dates in Christian history, beginning with AD 33 (traditional date for the origin of the church) and projecting to AD 2100 (one hundred years into the future). The points have been connected in order to approximate a “trajectory” of the demographic center of gravity of Christianity throughout its history, helping us to visualize the overall demographic growth of Christian expansion.
[Editor’s Note: The point begins in Jerusalem in AD 33. It moves slightly northwest to south of Turkey for 100. 200-600 are in the eastern portion of the Mediterranean. 700-1900 sees the migration through southeastern Europe, then west and south to Spain in 1900. 1970 has the point in northeastern Africa, with the line migrating sharply to the south and east through 2100. The section titles in the article are “From South to North and Back Again“; “What Does the Trajectory Signify?”; “Features of the Present Southeastern Trajectory”’ “Theological Implications of the Trajectory”; “ ‘They speak in many tongues’”; “Whose Mission?” There is also a graph showing the percentage of all Christians and dividing it up between north and south. In 1900 approximately 15% of all Christians were southern. In 2100 it is estimated they will be at almost 80%.
Conclusion
The 2,000 year trajectory of Christianity reveals a fascinating story of Christianity’s demographic roots in Asia and Africa, its gradual move into Europe, and its recent return to the South. Christianity’s great institutions and leaders have followed this trajectory. Therefore, the present southeastern trajectory of Christian demographics represents a new chapter in global Christianity. What is certain is that Christianity can no longer draw on a dominant Northern cultural, linguistic, or political framework for direction. Neither can the future be seen exclusively through the lenses of Southern Christianity. Global Christianity today is a phenomenon, not of uniformity, but of ever-increasing diversity. Paul-Gordon Chandler writes, “It is like the canvas of a beautiful painting with contrasting and complementary colors. The foundation for our unity as Christians throughout the world is not our likeness but our diversity.” The unanswered question for Christians from both the North and South is how well we will work, minister, and grow together in the context of this astonishing diversity. Today, the southeastern trajectory of global Christianity’s statistical center of gravity provides clues about where one might look to find both the answers and the leadership for that quest.”
